Link: A Blog Mogul Turns Bearish on Blogs - New York Times.
While I am certainly NOT one to think that Nick Denton is the online equivalent of Warren Buffett (heavens, no!), nor do I necessarily think he "gets" interactivity and grassroots media in a real sense (I'd still put him firmly in the "horseless carriage" category), I do have a great deal of interest in the article below.
First, holding my finger up into the wind, I am interested to hear that the "party" is back on. I wasn't too fond of the dot.com bubble "party" of the late 1990s, and my biggest complaint about it was how "stupid money" went around chasing after other "stupid money" in the form of venture capital and angels who didn't read business plans, dispensed with P/E ratios, and worst of all, had NO understanding of the larger concepts governing Internet communities and online interactive spaces.
They were carpet-baggers, in other words, and dumb carpet-baggers at that. And they were so full of themselves, they threw a big party of excess and actually believed it would never end, oblivious that the world of real people online went happily on without them.
So Nick Denton is suspicious that the "party" is starting up all over again with Web 2.0. Well and good, and I would be too. I'll give him credit for a certain degree of wisdom here. But is it?
Would Web 2.0, strictly defined, support the kind of "party" Denton is talking about? Or is it some kind of fluff popularization of Web 2.0 that is starting to consume speculators?
Think about what Web 2.0 means.
What does it mean for me? Maybe I'm half a bubble off here, but Web 2.0 for me means one major step closer to the Semantic Web (the Semantic Web, in my mind's eye, will be driven by AI), with XML- and tag-driven meta-information creating spaces for higher-level "smart content," or content that knows its own name, knows things about itself, can parse itself, and knows how to fit itself into larger contexts. Oh, and all these relationships are formed by many-to-many communication links or conversations, forming and reforming dynamically, on the fly. It's been called an "ecosystem."
In other words, the XML, MySQL/PHP, database-driven universe of tags and social network meta-data starts to web itself with levels of complexity that we have previously only seen with simple links as the coin of the realm, through regular old Vannevar Bush Memex machine hypertext theory.
Did I lose you there? That's OK. You're already one-up on VC with stupid money, so don't feel bad.
Just think about ways to visualize cyberspace, and think about how relationships can be represented so that items don't exist in space, all by their lonesome, but rather, are defined by their relationships to each other in a vast web of ongoing dialogues and conversations.
Or better yet, visualize a busy parlor with people clustered around, talking here and there in groups. Some of the people there are related, even second cousins twice removed. Some are married. Some are friends. Some are having secret affairs no one knows about. And most importantly, SOME drove in on horseless carriages from this big auditorium a few blocks away, where the only folks allowed to talk had to wait for a turn to get up on stage and hold forth with a microphone and a PA system.
You can tell the ones who drove in their horseless carriages over to our parlor here, because they walk into the room and ignore everyone else, and they just START TALKING IN VERY LOUD VOICES.
Some of the small conversations are disrupted by these obnoxious people, but others are not. This does not daunt the loud-talkers. They raise their voices more. They want everyone to pay attention to them exclusively, even if they kill off the party in the parlor in the meantime. That really doesn't bother them, because enough of the disrupted conversations will be lured into the loud-talkers' orbits, and those people (sheep) can be persuaded that what the parlor really NEEDS is a stage, and maybe, oh, you know, a PA system...
Got that image in your head? OK, now go read about Nick Denton below, and remember, he's no Warren Buffett, and not even a Tarot card reader.
Web 2.0 lives in the parlor, and turning the parlor into an auditorium is NOT Web 2.0. IMHO. The people who have this compelling need to turn it into an auditorium will just take a powder when their audience goes away, jump in their horseless carriages, and ride off in search of another busy parlor to disrupt.
Link: A Blog Mogul Turns Bearish on Blogs - New York Times.
July 3, 2006
David Carr
A Blog Mogul Turns Bearish on Blogs
THE blogging bubble has been taking on serious air of late. Last week, PaidContent.org,
a blog that covers digital media, held its first mixer. It was, by all
reports, filled to the brim with money and content guys speed dating on
the way to marriage.
Nick Denton, the founder of Gawker Media, was there, but he wasn't looking for love or money.
"It made me want to move to Budapest, batten down the hatches and
wait for the zombies to run out of food," Mr. Denton said cheerily.
[I love this line! And so apt, too. VC=Zombies? Who'd of thunk it?]
One of the overlords of the blogosphere with 15 sites and enough
buzz to arm every doorbell in the nation, Mr. Denton has watched page
views at his sites double in the last year; Gawker Media and
Nielsen/NetRatings put monthly unique visitors at 4.2 million. So it
comes as a bit of a surprise that Mr. Denton celebrated a very upbeat
stretch in the blogging industry by putting two of his sites on the
block, reorganizing others and laying off several people.
Laying off journalists? How very old media.
"Better to sober up now, before the end of the party," he said in
announcing the realignment. As of last Friday, Sploid, a
tabloid-infested site built on screen shots, and Screenhead, an
aggregator of video clips, were put up for sale. Editors at Gawker,
Wonkette, Gizmodo, and Gridskipper were moved or replaced. At a time
when mainstream media companies are madly baking their own piece of
blog pie, Mr. Denton was summarily executing underperformers.
"We are becoming a lot more like a traditional media company," Mr.
Denton said last week. "You launch a site, you have great hopes for it
and it does not grow as much as you wanted. You have to have the
discipline to recognize what isn't working and put your money and
efforts into those sites that are."
[...]
Gawker, Deadspin, a sports site, and Valleywag, a Silicon Valley
blog, in particular, have gone beyond cult status with rapacious,
real-time annotations. But while newer sites like Jalopnik, an
auto-obsessed blog, and Kotaku, a gaming destination, took off, Sploid
and Screenhead tanked.
[...]
BRACING candor is not the only relevant application at Gawker Media.
Blogs, as they became a medium unto themselves, have generally been
characterized not just by idiosyncrasy, but also by a publishing
schedule known only to them. Not so at Gawker Media, where the writers
publish early and often, delivering on the critical expectation that
readers will always find new content.
And every site, regardless of subject, is built on speaking what
mainstream reporters will only say sotto voce. It isn't journalism — as
Mr. Denton and his pack of merry provocateurs happily remind — but it
is the kind of media that attracts steady audiences that advertisers
covet.
"I always thought that you needed to know the code for finding out
what was actually going on when you read mainstream publications," he
said. "We just say it. It is supposed to be the conversation that
occurs between reporters at the bar after they have finished their
stories."
[...]
But the whole digital veneer masks a bit of a media traditionalist.
His sites are arrayed over very common contemporary interests —
celebrity, pornography, sports, Hollywood — that would not be out of
place in mass magazines (a dead-tree medium, by the way, that he
believes is far from dead). He thinks all of the bluster around blogs,
fueled in part by AOL's purchase of Weblogs, has brought stupid money
off the sidelines. He has felt the touch of clammy hands from venture
capitalists more times than he would care to count.
"There is no doubt that there is a bubble right now," he said.
So why not cash out?
"Because it would be too hard to start over," he said. "Sites need
to be well-managed and well-designed and even then it is harder and
harder to launch a site. The world does not need more blogs," adding
that if you count all the pages on MySpace, "there is approximately one
reader for every blog out there."
For his part, Mr. Denton spends a lot more time reading computer code
than blogs. He believes that the common software behind blogs isn't up
to the task and now has 11 people, including 4 in Hungary, working on
developing proprietary solutions.
[...]
Mr. Denton thinks a few other opportunities are worth investigating, but is not making any bold predictions.
"The barrier to entry in Internet media is low," he said. "The barrier to success is high."
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