Lately I've had a pet peeve with the media (duh, just one?).
No, what's bugging me is this assumption that for every statistic, for every result, there is a narrative.
Some county went this way, but by the barest of margins. In the hands of some reporters, this translates into a narrative that religious people are superior organizers who are finally willing to stand up for their values. That translates into a whole "trend" story about religious people standing up for their values with superior organization.
But then a recount shows that county going the other way. Suddenly there is an instant new narrative, add water and stir. African Americans rallied behind their candidate in the face of rain and long lines, facing down the barrage of negative ads like underdogs, to make a bold statement against the incumbent.
Suddenly there is another recount, and Nader has miraculously taken the lead. All the other narratives vanish in a poof, as if such an absurd idea never even was entertained. Nader the Crusader wasn't just an underdog... he was a man with a mission, uncompromising, and clearly voters reacted to this and fell in behind his strong leadership and consumer values (cue the music and waving flag in background... because journalism plays best when it looks like a campaign commercial, right?). Voters saw in him a man who speaks for them. (choke up here...)

This is all just so much crap. Yes, there are reasons for every statistic, and real analysis to be done, but this excessive need to force every blip into a ready-made narrative out of the Writer's Digest Master Plots book I have here just makes me ill. But beyond the repetition of trite tropes (say that three times fast, trite tropes, trite tropes, trite tropes), the thin margins and the possibility that a recount could give a different result and make a reporter look REALLY stupid seems to have no effect on the creation of the narratives. Nothing seems to curb this excessive urge to force every event into a canned, cliche'd, pre-made storyline.
There are two New Republic articles that just brought that whole thing home for me. The lead in each was something of a parody (with the word "eventually" in parenthesis in the titles), so there was one article from each campaign, about how the journalists in each entourage reacted to the early exit poll results that were later reversed.
Here's a bit from both of them:
LIBERALS (EVENTUALLY) DESPAIR.
Night Falls
by Ryan Lizza
http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20041115&s=lizza111504
Boston, Massachusetts
The expectations had gotten so out of control that, on Tuesday afternoon, we reporters gathered in the ballroom of the Fairmont Copley Plaza had already moved on to the second-, third-, and fourth-day stories. The exit polls seemed to show such a clear sweep of the battleground states for John Kerry that the news of his victory already seemed stale. What would the more solidly Republican Senate mean for Kerry's ambitious health care plan? Who would he appoint to replace ailing Supreme Court Justice William Rehnquist? Most important, how could Kerry co-opt John McCain, a Republican frontrunner for the 2008 presidential election? Yep, it's true. We were already speculating about the dynamics of Kerry's reelection campaign. Some got to work on pieces about the transition. A newspaper reporter at a major daily polished an article about George W. Bush's concession speech. Now that we "knew" the winner, the whole campaign seemed so obvious. The Swift Boat attacks had come too early to do any real damage. The Clintonites added late in the campaign were geniuses. Karl Rove's base strategy was delusional.
A feedback loop between staffers and the media only reinforced the dangerously wrong conventional wisdom. Everywhere, Blackberries clicked and crackled as people beamed each other the addictive exit polls. With Kerry aides floating among the press corps, conversations evolved from "What are you hearing?" in the morning to "Are you moving to Washington?" in the afternoon. I compared notes with Jamie Rubin, a senior foreign policy adviser. He popped open a message on his PDA that showed two long columns of state abbreviations and numbers. The first line showed Kerry ahead by 17 points in one swing state. We agreed to swap any new numbers that came our way. The exit polls were like crack.
And from the other:
CONSERVATIVES (EVENTUALLY) REJOICE.
Turn Around
by Michael Crowley
http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20041115&s=crowley111504
Early on Election Day, you could see the Republican story line developing: bloggers steal election. As exit polls showing amazingly good news for John Kerry careened around the Web--widely enough to shake the U.S. stock market--panicky conservatives lashed out at what they saw as a rush to judgment that was biasing news coverage even before the polls closed. At National Review Online, writers fumed that the base was growing demoralized at the early numbers, potentially depressing turnout, and wondered if this might be phony data circulated by Kerry operatives. One poster argued that the way the exit polls were shaping early news coverage amounted to a "media debacle."
That didn't last for long. By night's end, it was Democrats--furious that Fox and NBC had called Ohio for George W. Bush--who were shrieking (again) about a stolen election. Republicans, meanwhile, felt vindicated--enough to stay at a Washington rally until six in the morning, when White House Chief of Staff Andy Card arrived amid the discarded signs and broken glasses to declare that George W. Bush had won a "decisive" victory. But it was a long and nerve-racking trip to get there.
Both of these bits seem to me to expose more about what is wrong with the conventions of journalism than anything else.
Chris
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